TEHRAN- It was a warning to Manila, Dhaka, Lagos, and the entire global South, where extractive capitalism has transformed ecosystems into sacrifice zones.

According to data from the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), as of December 5, at least 867 people were confirmed dead, 521 were still missing, and more than 835,000 were displaced, a population nearly the size of Bhutan.

The economic paralysis was total, and the infrastructure was destroyed. More than 405 bridges were destroyed, 270 health facilities were damaged, and 509 schools were submerged. These are not statistics; this is the slaughter of life by a system that values timber, palm oil, and coal more than lives.

Aceh bore the brunt, with 349 dead and 175 missing. North Sumatra followed with 321 dead and 134 missing. West Sumatra was devastated, with 227 dead and 213 missing. More than 2.2 million people in 3,310 villages in Aceh alone were affected. When the waters receded, thousands of families found their homes buried in mud and their futures shattered.

These facts were the stark culmination of decades of failure. Forests that once absorbed rainfall were now bare. Rivers that once flowed calmly now overflowed like tsunamis. This disaster was born of an extractive economic model that, for two decades, had traded forests as commodities.

The government blamed Tropical Cyclone Senyar as the primary cause of this natural disaster, which was beyond human control. However, data and history contradict this comfortable narrative. The real reason was the systematic destruction of forest cover, land conversion, and corporate permits permitted by the state. At the same time, the people were forced to pay the price for economic growth and commodity exports.
The December 2025 floods on Sumatra Island were not simply a hydrometeorological tragedy. They were Southeast Asia's largest ecological disaster in 2025. This was a "critical juncture," a historical turning point that forced the world to confront Indonesia's environmental governance failures, structural inequalities, and geopolitical contradictions, despite its image as the guardian of the world's tropical forests.

A relentless graph of destruction

This man-made flood disaster was triggered by mass deforestation over the past two decades. The deforestation graph in Sumatra shows a consistent and persistent pattern. Every year, hundreds of thousands of hectares of primary forest are converted to palm oil plantations, mining concessions, and pulp and paper facilities.

In 2012, Sumatra lost more than 413,200 hectares of forest in a single year. Then in 2015, Sumatra lost 335,100 hectares. That's the equivalent of losing 4,700 football fields every day for an entire year. Since then, an average of more than 200,000 hectares has been lost annually.

Currently, there are 1,907 active Mining Business Permits (IUP Minerba) operating throughout Sumatra. The 2.45 million hectares of forest that should function as a giant water-absorbing sponge are now barren, corporate-owned land. Global Forest Watch documents that Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra have lost 7,569 square miles of forest since 2000, an area larger than New Jersey.

As environmentalists note, rainforest cover acts like a sponge, absorbing water, but after deforestation, there's nothing to slow the torrential rain as it enters the waterways. So, when the heavy rains arrived in late 2025, the waters rushed in, carrying mud and felled timber, crashing into the homes of poor people downstream.

Large corporations and agribusiness conglomerates were the primary perpetrators holding permits during the peak period of deforestation in Sumatra. They must be held accountable for the land conversion that exacerbated the flooding. This is not just a result of the rain, but a result of extractive capitalism sacrificing ecosystems for oligarchic profits.

A battleground for global influence

Palm oil expansion has been a major driver of deforestation over the past 20 years. Sumatra experienced a 3.7-fold increase in palm oil-driven deforestation in 2022 compared to 2020.

Indonesia's palm oil sector represents 4.5% of GDP and employs more than 16.2 million people directly and indirectly. The country is the world's largest palm oil exporter, accounting for 54% of global exports.

China recently surpassed the European Union and India to become Indonesia's largest palm oil importer, increasing its market share from 11% in 2013 to 14% in 2022. China and India together account for 75% of Indonesia's total palm oil deforestation exposure.

Indonesia's domestic consumption has also increased from 32% of production in 2018 to 44% in 2022, with more than half of that used for biodiesel. Europe demands that Indonesia protect its "lungs of the world," while European banks finance the deforestation that is causing these disasters. This is climate colonialism disguised as green rhetoric.

Northern countries want Indonesia to preserve forests for carbon credits while continuing to import palm oil, timber, and minerals extracted through deforestation. Indonesia is being told to sacrifice economic development for global climate goals, yet is being denied support to transition away from extractive capitalist industries.

International responses have come from the United Nations, the World Health Organization, Amnesty International, Iran, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, and many other countries offering assistance. However, the Indonesian government, through Minister of State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi, has received little more than lukewarm response.

Indonesia's refusal to declare a national emergency only makes sense through the lens of political economy. Certainly, declaring a national emergency would trigger international scrutiny of the industries that drive Indonesia's economic growth.

From my perspective as a democratic socialist, this disaster exposes the fundamental contradictions of Indonesia's development model. We can no longer build capitalism by liquidating our ecological foundations.

We cannot replant forests while logging permits remain in effect. We cannot restore watersheds while mining concessions expand upstream. We need structural transformation, the enforcement of ecological justice, and a call for international solidarity.

Bobby Ciputra is chairman of Indonesian Young Socialist Movement (Angkatan Muda Sosialis Indonesia - AMSI)